Tuesday, October 20, 2015

New paper explains the ~1,500 year climate cycle on basis of astronomical variables, not CO2

A potentially important paper published today in Climate of the Past Discussions finds the well-known ~1500 year cycle of "abrupt climate change" can be explained on the basis of astronomical variables that create a "high-frequency extension of the Milankovitch precessional cycle." 

According to the authors,
"The existence of a ~ 1470 year cycle of abrupt climate change is well-established, manifesting in Bond ice-rafting debris (IRD) events, Dansgaard–Oeschger atmospheric temperature cycle, and cyclical climatic conditions precursory to increased El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and intensity. This cycle is central to questions on Holocene climate stability and hence anthropogenic impacts on climate. To date no causal mechanism has been identified, although solar forcing has been previously suggested."

"Here we show that interacting combination of astronomical variables related to Earth's orbit may be causally related to this cycle and several associated key isotopic spectral signals. The ~ 1470 year climate cycle may thus be regarded as a high frequency extension of the Milankovitch precessional cycle, incorporating orbital, solar and lunar forcing through interaction with the tropical and anomalistic years and Earth's rotation."
Warmists claim that the current warm period is not explainable on the basis of solar activity nor astronomical variables, but this paper and many others suggest otherwise, that the current warming period is entirely explainable as a result of natural variability, and for which anthropogenic CO2 plays little to no role.






An astronomical correspondence to the 1470 year cycle of abrupt climate change
A. M. Kelsey1, F. W. Menk2, and P. T. Moss1
1School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia
2Centre for Space Physics, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Information Technology, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, 2308, Australia

Abstract. The existence of a ~ 1470 year cycle of abrupt climate change is well-established, manifesting in Bond ice-rafting debris (IRD) events, Dansgaard–Oeschger atmospheric temperature cycle, and cyclical climatic conditions precursory to increased El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and intensity. This cycle is central to questions on Holocene climate stability and hence anthropogenic impacts on climate (deMenocal et al., 2000). To date no causal mechanism has been identified, although solar forcing has been previously suggested. Here we show that interacting combination of astronomical variables related to Earth's orbit may be causally related to this cycle and several associated key isotopic spectral signals. The ~ 1470 year climate cycle may thus be regarded as a high frequency extension of the Milankovitch precessional cycle, incorporating orbital, solar and lunar forcing through interaction with the tropical and anomalistic years and Earth's rotation.

Related:


The Physical Evidence of Earth's Unstoppable 1,500-Year Climate Cycle

Friday, September 30, 2005
by S. Fred Singer & Dennis T. Avery

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