Monday, September 1, 2014

New paper finds another non-hockey-stick in Russian sub-Arctic, cooling over 4,500 years

A paper published today in Global and Planetary Change finds another non-hockey-stick in the Russian sub-Arctic with reconstructed temperatures showing a cooling trend over the past 4,500 years since the Holocene Climate Optimum. The paper adds to over 1,000 other worldwide non-hockey-sticks published in the scientific literature.

Proxy temperatures [2nd graph from left] show a decreasing trend from 4,500 years before the present [BP] to the end of the record in the 20th century
Proxy temperatures [2nd graph from bottom] show a decreasing trend from 4,500 years before the present [BP] to the end of the record in the 20th century

Abstract

Especially in combination with other proxies, the oxygen isotope composition of diatom silica (δ18Odiatom) from lake sediments is useful for interpreting past climate conditions. This paper presents the first oxygen isotope data of fossil diatoms from Kamchatka, Russia, derived from sediment cores from Two-Yurts Lake (TYL). For reconstructing late Holocene climate change, palaeolimnological investigations also included diatom, pollen and chironomid analysis.
The most recent diatom sample (δ18Odiatom = + 23.3‰) corresponds well with the present day isotopic composition of the TYL water (mean δ18O = -14.8‰) displaying a reasonable isotope fractionation in the system silica-water. Nonetheless, the TYL δ18Odiatom record is mainly controlled by changes in the isotopic composition of the lake water. TYL is considered as a dynamic system triggered by differential environmental changes closely linked with lake-internal hydrological factors.
The diatom silica isotope record displays large variations in δ18Odiatom from + 27.3‰ to + 23.3‰ from about ~ 4.5 kyrs BP until today. A continuous depletion in δ18Odiatom of 4.0‰ is observed in the past 4.5 kyrs, which is good accordance with other hemispheric environmental changes (i.e. a summer insolation-driven Mid- to Late Holocene cooling). The overall cooling trend is superimposed by regional hydrological and atmospheric-oceanic changes. These are related to the interplay between Siberian High and Aleutian Low as well as to the ice dynamics in the Sea of Okhotsk. Additionally, combined δ18Odiatom and chironomid interpretations provide new information on changes related to meltwater input to lakes. Hence, this diatom isotope study provides further insight into hydrology and climate dynamics of this remote, rarely investigated area.

New UN propaganda "Bad weather for 2050 TV forecast"

A new climate propaganda video from the UN WMO claims to be a first edition of "weather reports from the future" predicting "floods, storms and searing heat from Arizona to Zambia within four decades, as part of a United Nations [propaganda] campaign on Monday to draw attention to a U.N. summit this month on fighting global warming."

Dr. Roger Pielke's button that he has to push far too often

Meanwhile, the UN IPCC reports find no established links between extreme weather, floods, storms... and the IPCC climate models upon which warming and  these "weather reports from the future" have already been falsified at confidence levels of 98%+ due to exaggerating global warming by a factor of 2-4 times. 


Bad weather for 2050 as TV forecasters imagine climate change


9:40pm IST  REUTERS
* Floods, heatwaves, droughts part of normal weather in 2050
* Campaign to draw attention to Sept. 23 U.N. summit
OSLO, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Imaginary television weather forecasts predicted floods, storms and searing heat from Arizona to Zambia within four decades, as part of a United Nations campaign on Monday to draw attention to a U.N. summit this month on fighting global warming.
"Miami South Beach is under water," one forecaster says in a first edition of "weather reports from the future", a series set in 2050 and produced by companies including Japan's NHK, the U.S. Weather Channel and ARD in Germany.
The U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which invited well-known television presenters to make videos to be issued before a U.N. summit on Sept. 23, said the scenarios were "imaginary but realistic" for a warming world.
A Zambian forecaster, for instance, describes a severe heatwave and an American presenter says: "the mega-drought in Arizona has claimed another casualty".
Some, however, show extreme change. One Bulgarian presenter shows a red map with temperatures of 50 degrees C (122 Fahrenheit) - far above the temperature record for the country of 45.2C (113F) recorded in 1916.
"Climate change is affecting the weather everywhere. It makes it more extreme and disturbs established patterns. That means more disasters; more uncertainty," U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a statement.
Ban has asked world leaders to make "bold pledges" to fight climate change at the meeting in New York. The summit is meant as a step towards a deal by almost 200 nations, due by the end of 2015, to slow global warming.
A U.N. report last year concluded that it is at least 95 percent probable that human activities, rather than natural variations in the climate, are the main cause of global warming since 1950.
A 2011 survey by George Mason University, however, found that TV meteorologists were less likely than most climate scientists to reckon that human activity is the main cause of warming.
For a link to the WMO weather reports, click on:

New paper links solar activity to center of mass of solar system

A new paper by Dr. Willie Soon et al published in New Astronomy finds solar activity "corresponds remarkably well" with the Sun's orbital movement around the barycenter [center of mass] of the solar system. The authors
"find that the maximum variations of [the Sun's specific potential energy storage] correspond remarkably well with the occurrences of well-documented Grand Minima (GM) solar events throughout the available proxy solar magnetic activity records for the past 1000 yr."
The paper finds "Grand Minima are related to the Sun's closest approaches to the barycenter," and predicts another Grand Minimum in solar activity will occur around 2150 AD. Several other researchers have linked changes in solar activity to the Sun's orbital position relative to the barycenter of the solar system, which along with multiple solar amplification mechanisms may possibly one day lead to a "unified grand theory of Earth's climate."



Computation of the Sun's orbit relative to the center of mass [barycenter] of the solar system

Solar system barycenter 


Sun's potential energy [PE] is related to its position relative to the barycenter of the solar system, as shown in 2nd graph, and corresponds "remarkably well" with the minima of reconstructed sunspot numbers [SN] shown in bottom graph
Predicted solar Grand Minima based upon the theory

Highlights

A physical model of Sun–Planets Interaction is described.
Solar activity Grand Minima (GM) are related to the Sun’s closest approaches to barycenter.
There are several candidate GM events in the next 1000 yr.

Abstract

We numerically integrate the Sun’s orbital movement around the barycenter of the solar system under the persistent perturbation of the planets from the epoch J2000.0, backward for about one millennium, and forward for another millennium to 3000 AD. Under the Sun–Planets Interaction (SPI) framework and interpretation of Wolff and Patrone (2010), we calculated the corresponding variations of the most important storage of the specific potential energy (PE) within the Sun that could be released by the exchanges between two rotating, fluid-mass elements that conserve its angular momentum. This energy comes about as a result of the roto-translational dynamics of the cell around the solar system barycenter. We find that the maximum variations of this PE storage correspond remarkably well with the occurrences of well-documented Grand Minima (GM) solar events throughout the available proxy solar magnetic activity records for the past 1000 yr. It is also clear that the maximum changes in PE precede the GM events in that we can identify precursor warnings to the imminent weakening of solar activity for an extended period. The dynamical explanation of these PE minima is connected to the minima of the Sun’s position relative to the barycenter as well as the significant amount of time the Sun’s inertial motion revolving near and close to the barycenter. We presented our calculation of PE forward by another 1000 yr until 3000 AD. If the assumption of the solar activity minima corresponding to PE minima is correct, then we can identify quite a few significant future solar activity Grand Minima events with a clustering of PE minima pulses starting at around 2150 AD, 2310 AD, 2500 AD, 2700 AD and 2850 AD.

From the Annals of Failed Global Warming Predictions: Global cooling

WUWT has a post today

"Great moments in climate prediction: ‘World will warm faster than predicted in next five years, study warns’"
 / 


That now failed 2009 headline is from Duncan Clark in the Guardian.
Guardian_5yrs_warming
see humorous and 100% accurate rebuttal at WUWT
____________________________________

The authors of this alleged "skeptic silencing" paper were Judith Lean [of "Judithgate" fame] and David Rind of NASA GISS, who very confidently predicted global temps would warm 0.15C plus or minus 0.03C [i.e. warm from 0.12C-0.18C] during the five year period 2009 to 2014.

The trend in observations from the following datasets show that over the five years 2009-2014, the globe instead cooled by:
HadCRU4 surface data: -0.044C 
RSS satellite data: -0.09C 

Further, the paper predicts there will be a "pause" in warming due to low solar activity for the subsequent 5 years from 2014-2019 with a temperature change of only 0.03C +/- 0.01.

Ironically, this paper which was claimed by the Guardian rag in 2009 to "silence global warming skeptics" was not only wrong about the predicted anthropogenic warming, but also [possibly correctly] predicts that low solar activity will lead to a "pause" in warming from 2014-2019. 

Graph from Lean & Rind paper with predicted warming from the NASA GISS climate model shown in top graph to 2014 [labeled as "A"] and to 2019 [labeled as "B"]. The globe actually cooled 2009-2014. Lean & Rind predicted a "pause" in warming will occur 2014-2019 due to low solar activity. 

Saturday, August 30, 2014

New paper finds climate change is explained by...fractals

A Mandelbrot multifractal which sorta kinda looks like the blade of a hockey stick, followed by a "pause"

A paper published today in Theoretical and Applied Climatology finds the global monthly temperature anomalies over the past 162 years from 1850-2012 are "surprisingly" "well-described" by a simple mathematical model of fractals with multiple exponents, so-called "multifractals." Multifractals can be used describe complex nonlinear phenomena in the real world, including chaos:

"A multifractal system is a generalization of a fractal system in which a single exponent (the fractal dimension) is not enough to describe its dynamics; instead, a continuous spectrum of exponents (the so-called singularity spectrum) is needed.[1] 
Multifractal systems are common in nature, especially geophysics. They include fully developed turbulencestock market time series, real world scenes, the Sun’s magnetic field time seriesheartbeat dynamics, human gait, and natural luminosity time series. Models have been proposed in various contexts ranging from turbulence in fluid dynamics to internet traffic, finance, image modeling, texture synthesis, meteorology, geophysics and more. The origin of multifractality in sequential (time series) data has been attributed, to mathematical convergence effects related to the central limit theoremthat have as foci of convergence the family of statistical distributions known as the Tweedie exponential dispersion models[2] as well as the geometric Tweedie models.[3] The first convergence effect yields monofractal sequences and the second convergence effect is responsible for variation in the fractal dimension of the monofractal sequences.[4] 
From a practical perspective, multifractal analysis uses the mathematical basis of multifractal theory to investigate datasets, often in conjunction with other methods of fractal analysis and lacunarity analysis. The technique entails distorting datasets extracted from patterns to generate multifractal spectra that illustrate how scaling varies over the dataset. The techniques of multifractal analysis have been applied in a variety of practical situations such as predicting earthquakes and interpreting medical images."

According to the IPCC, only man-made CO2 can possibly explain the global temperature record since 1950. However, IPCC models are unable to model natural variability including ocean oscillations, solar amplification mechanisms, and internal variability, and thus these factors cannot be excluded as possible causes. The fractal model as described in this study might be a potential way to model natural internal variability of the climate system, and suggests that internal variability alone could account for climate change since 1850, without any contribution from man-made CO2. 

Could multifractals be another cause for the "pause?"




Multifractal characterization of global temperature anomalies

The global monthly temperature anomaly time series for the period 1850–2012 has been investigated in terms of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). Various multifractal observables, such as the generalized Hurst exponent, the multifractal exponent, and the singularity spectrum, are extracted and are fitted to a generalized binomial multifractal model consists of only two free parameters. The results of this analysis give a clear indication of the presence of long-term memory in the global temperature anomaly time series which causes multifractal pattern in the data. We investigate the possible other source(s) of multifractality in the series by random shuffling as well as by surrogating the original series and find that the probability density function also contributes to the observed multifractal pattern along with the long-memory effect. Surprisingly, the temperature anomaly time series are well described by the two-parameter multifractal binomial model.

Friday, August 29, 2014

Analysis finds California 'solar' plant reduces CO2 emissions at cost of $1,800 per ton

A cost/benefit analysis posted at the German Skeptical Science site finds Ivanpah, the world's largest "solar" power plant, not only burns through a lot of birds, it inefficiently burns through a lot of fossil fuels and money as well. Ivanpah uses the ancient technology of firing steam boilers, which are far less efficient and generate higher emissions of CO2 & actual air pollutants than a modern gas turbine plant.

According to the analysis


Did anyone bother to run these numbers before this $2.2 billion taxpayer-loan-guaranteed boondoggle was built? 

Solar power plant in the desert burns birds ... and Gas ... and a lot of money

Google translation from German:

August 26, 2014 | From  | 
800px-Ivanpah_Solar_Power_Facility_OnlineAs a way to replace fossil fuels with "natural" source, the solar thermal energy, is heated by concentrated sunlight in the water and the steam thus generated with generators produces electricity. It sounds clean and inexpensive at first glance.Finally, no CO2 emissions fall and the sun sends you know, if at all, only a very small bill. Right?
Wrong, but in sequence.
In California's Mojave Desert, about 50 kilometers south of Las Vegas , is the Ivanpah solar power plant. The commissioned in February this year, investment focused using mirrors sunlight on three solar towers, which is produced in this water vapor, are driven by steam turbines to generate electricity. With a rated capacity of 392 MW, the plant is the world's largest solar thermal power plant. However, this figure can not be compared with the rated power of conventional power plants, including the solar power plant can only produce electricity when the sun shines. And the production is following the path of the sun, at noon significantly higher than in the morning or evening. The annual production of the three generators is given as 1,080 GWh . This is equivalent to 2,800 full load hours, which is less than the value that an offshore wind power plant is usually attained.
Low power for a lot of money
Are outstanding at the flagship project not only the size and rated power, but also the construction cost 2.18 billion dollars.These are $ 5.5 billion per gigawatt. For comparison, a gas power plant will cost approximately one billion dollars per gigawatt power rating less than a fifth . If one can expect that incorporates a gas power plant with the same rated power over the year produce more than three times the current amount,
It can be seen therefore, quite clearly, economically it is not a solar power plant. But who is already considering the filthy lucre, when it comes to protecting the environment and to conserve fossil fuels.
Environmental protection? Ask the birds
Where - the already relativized with the environment, when compared to the enormous land consumption of such a system with the conventional power plants. And you must not be pronounced bird friend . It has been found that is quite fast in operation that focuses sunlight to produce steam and is strong enough to grill birds in flight. And these seem to be attracted literally from the solar system, because the bright light of the mirror attracts insects. The birds fall with singed wings to the ground have to get on the staff of the facility nicknamed "Streamers". Because of the smoke plume, they strutting in the crash behind him. (Impressive images of burns, there are, among others here ).
Estimates of the number of birds, characterized let their lives every year for the supposedly good thing widely. The operators go out of about 1,000 animals, Environmentalists fear up to 28,000. Otherwise come in so many dead birds per area or per megawatt hour at most wind farms in the immediate vicinity of SPAs.
Natural gas as a backup
Also, the conservation of resources is not everything intact eco-world. If the sun does not even seem sufficient, in the Ivanpah power plant backup is provided, in which the lack of solar power is supplemented by the burning of natural gas.And so it looks like you have but a little overrated on the part of operators, the power of the sun. To compensate for this error has BrightSource Energy , the operating company, now applied for the California government to be allowed to use more natural gas for heating . This would imply additional CO2 emissions by 95,000 tons per year. Overall, 35 percent of the electricity would then not derived from solar energy, but from natural gas.
Now if one takes into consideration nor that the efficiency of the system in low 28.7% is, therefore, less than half of a modern gas and steam power plant, it quickly becomes clear that this green flagship project in the desert in California especially is one, A resource and money-wasting green window dressing.
 Cover of Aioannides [ GFDL   or CC-BY-SA-3.0 ], via Wikimedia Commons
Addendum: Wirschaftlichkeitsbetrachtung
The solar power plant has cost 2,018 million dollars . Adopted at a depreciation period of 20 years and 3% interest arising therefore capital costs of $ 135 million per year . Maintenance and operation hit with $ 67 per kilowatt of rated power and year to book, so makes further $ 26.3 million.
35 percent of the electricity shall as seen above for regular operations are generated with gas. With an efficiency of 28 per cent to 1,080 GWh * 35% will be divided by the efficiency of 28%, that requires 1,350 GWh of natural gas. In California, the MWh of natural gas currently costs about 18 euros ( here and here ). The annual gas bill is thus 25.3 million dollars. This gives total annual costs of good 186 million dollars. Assuming that the operator also wants to make something and a profit margin of 8% stipulates a one comes to 201.5 million dollars total cost of 1,080 gigawatt hours of electricity. This calculated:
Production costs in the amount of 18.6 cents, or 14.2 euro-cents per kWh
If we make the same calculation for a gas power plant (CCGT) power plants on results, at the same conditions:
Power plant costs: $ 390 million 
+ interest repayment: $ 26.4 million per annum 
operation and maintenance: $ 7,100,000 pa 
gas costs (60% efficiency): 98 Wed $ pa 
MWh per annum (8000 full load hours): 3,136,000
. Production costs including 8% margin: 3.4 cents, or 2.6 euro-cents per kWh
Interesting is also a comparison of CO2 emissions , as to their reduction it is supposed to go above all. The "clean" solar power plant consumes 1.25 kWh gas per kWh of electricity. The combined cycle power plant requires 1.67 kWh of gas for the same amount of electricity. From this perspective, the "solar power plant merely an inefficient gas-fired power plant which is much more expensive with solar support.
A kWh of gas produces about 200 g CO2 emissions. The one produced per GWh of electricity with the solar power plant thus covered 1.25 times 200 tonnes = 250 tonnes CO2. A combined cycle power plant emits the same amount of current 1.67 times 200, ie 334 tons of CO2.
A GWh of electricity from the solar power plant will cost 186,000 dollars, from the combined cycle power plant 34,000 dollars. The cost difference of 152,000 at a CO2 saving of 84 tonnes of CO2 equivalent cost of 1,800 dollars per saved ton CO2. Has the good are 1360 euros, roughly as much as a ton of CO2 avoided by photovoltaics in 2004 in Germany at record high feed-in tariff of 54 cents per kWh cost.
Related: 
Perhaps a better use for Ivanpah: Harnessing the power of man-made CO2 back-radiation

New paper shows equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were about the same in 1930's as end of 20th century

A paper published today in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology reconstructs sea surface temperature changes since 1874 from corals located in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Data from the paper shows temperatures around ~1930 were about the same as at the end of the 20th century, and only ~0.25C warmer than in ~1885 [shortly after the end of the Little Ice Age] near the start of the reconstruction. 

According to the authors,
"The interannual and decadal variability in Clipperton coral...demonstrates strong coherence to the [natural] Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with reduced ENSO variability from 1920 to late 1930s and enhanced variability in the late twentieth century."
The reconstruction is also compared to instrumental sea surface temperature observations [most of which were made with crude measurement methods and questionable adjustments] which show warming of 0.5C-0.75C over the same time-frame, potentially indicating an upward bias of man-made observations in comparison to a uniform proxy temperature reconstruction. Where have we seen that before?

Top graph is the coral proxy temperature reconstruction, with added red horizontal line to show temperatures were approximately the same around 1930 as at the end of the record, and only ~0.25 warmer than in ~1885. Second graph shows 2 instrumental records, which do have issues. 

Highlights

Multi-coral composite Sr/Ca-derived SST demonstrates improved SST reconstruction.
Advocate reproducibility method to discern possible anomalous coral records.
Eastern Pacific coral Sr/Ca records indicate strong coherence to ENSO and PDO.

Abstract

Sub-seasonally resolved and replicated coral Sr/Ca time series at Clipperton Atoll (10°18′N, 109°13′W) in the eastern Pacific are assessed as a sea surface temperature (SST) proxy in this region with small seasonal SST variability. The composite coral Sr/Ca time series is a partially replicated record of three live and one sub-modern colony of Porites lobata extending back to 1874. Large inter-colony coral Sr/Ca offsets equate to relative SST differences of 0.6 to 4.3 °C and limit the ability to reconstruct absolute SST changes. Moreover, the replication method revealed a 12-year section of growth in one colony where mean Sr/Ca was anomalously low (~ 1 °C higher SST) relative to the other colonies without evidence of diagenesis or other significant skeletal alterations. The presence of this anomalous interval supports the need for multi-coral Sr/Ca replication in specific sites or regions. The Clipperton Composite Sr/Ca anomaly record is significantly coherent (r = 0.71–0.76, p < 0.001) with gridded instrumental SSTs but with larger amplitude decadal variance that appears to more accurately represent actual SST variability at Clipperton. The amplitude of the secular warming trend during the last century at Clipperton is 0.3 to 0.6 °C larger (~ twice as large) than the trend in the poorly “ground-truthed” instrumental SST records for the region. The interannual and decadal variability in Clipperton coral Sr/Ca demonstrates strong coherence to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with reduced ENSO variability from 1920 to late 1930s and enhanced variability in the late twentieth century.

New paper shows ice mass stable to increasing over most of Antarctic ice sheet

A paper published today in Earth & Planetary Science Letters evaluates snow and ice-mass changes in Antarctica using both satellite altimetry [Envisat] and gravimetry [GRACE] between 2003-2010. The data shows most areas of the ice sheet are stable to increasing in ice mass, including the East Antarctic ice sheet, which alone contains over 80% of the total ice mass of Antarctica. The Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica, which overlie geothermal heat sources are found to be losing ice, but represent relatively small regions of the ice sheet. The entire Dronning Maud Land north coast of Antarctica was found to have increasing snow accumulation. 

The changes shown appear to be highly regional and/or related to known geothermal sources, rather than more uniform changes as would be expected from global warming. 

Antarctic sea ice extent has recently hit record highs, but that too is being [falsely] blamed upon global warming. Climate models falsely claimed Antarctic sea ice would decrease, and that Antarctic sea ice would decrease more than Arctic sea ice. 

Top graph is satellite altimetry, bottom is gravimetry [measurement of gravity] from GRACE. Red areas are increasing ice mass, blue areas losing ice mass, white areas no change. 

We combine GRACE and Envisat data to examine snow and ice-mass changes in Antarctica.
We account for leakage effects in surface-mass rates estimated using GRACE solutions.
We estimate regional change in air and ice content of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface.
Estimated snow accumulation rates agree well with predicted surface-mass balance rates.

Abstract

We combine the surface-elevation and surface-mass change derived from Envisat data and GRACE solutions, respectively, to estimate regional changes in air and ice content of the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) between January 2003 and October 2010. This leads, upon certain assumptions, to the separation of the rates of recent snow-accumulation change and that of ice-mass change. We obtain that the height of ice in Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers sectors decreases (≤−15.7 cm/yr) while that in the Kamb glacier sector increases (≥5.3 cm/yr). The central part of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is mostly stable while the whole Dronning Maud Land coast is dominated by an increase in snow accumulation. The Kemp land regions show an ice-mass gain that accounts for 67–74% of the observed rates of elevation change in these regions. A good agreement is obtained over 68% of the investigated area, mostly in the East AIS, between our estimated rates of snow accumulation change and the predicted rates of the monthly surface mass balance derived from a regional atmospheric climate model.