Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Climate “Consensus” Con Game: Desperate Effort Before Release of UN Report

Climate “Consensus” Con Game: Desperate Effort Before Release of UN Report

Written by William F. Jasper, The New American  5/22/13

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is in trouble, and climate alarmists are hoping the much-ballyhooed report by Australian activist John Cook, released last week, will convince the public to be very afraid of global warming.

The last few years have not been kind to the global-warming alarmists. In the 17th century, François, Duc de La Rochefoucauld is credited with famously quipping, “There goes another beautiful theory about to be murdered by a brutal gang of facts.”
Unfortunately, for the climate catastrophists, their pet theory (though hardly beautiful) has been slaughtered many times over by a brutal and relentless onslaught of facts. Unfortunately, for the rest of us, however, the global-warming alarmists keep coming back like the undead in a B-grade horror flick. The fanatical proponents of anthropogenic (human caused) global warming, or AGW, have powerful supporters with deep pockets who keep resuscitating them. They have a massive institutional base among Big Government, Big Media, Big Foundations, Big Business, and Big Green, all of which have huge incentives to perpetuate AGW alarmism. No matter how many times the AGW fearmongers’ predictions are shot down, they are resurrected and sent back to frighten more voters/taxpayers into submission to global policies, taxes, and controls. Utilizing brute power and deception, they intend to reverse de La Rochefoucauld’s prediction and see the facts murdered by their own triumphant theory.
As we have reported ("Global Warming 'Consensus': Cooking the Books") AGW activist John Cook has been the recipient of a media promotion bonanza for his recent study claiming that 97 percent of climate scientists endorse the global-warming alarmist position. President Obama and Big Media turned it into a claim that 97 percent of all scientists endorse the AGW position. Both claims are wrong. Stung by numerous setbacks, the AGW lobby is desperately attempting to regain ground through a giant bluff, hoping that their false claim of the near unanimity of all scientists will convince politicians and the public to give them the global power and funding they crave.
Among the many fatal blows the climate alarmists have sustained along the way and managed to bounce back from are: Climategate (see hereherehere, and here)Climategate 2Glaciergate, Polar beargate (see here and here)Himalayagate, Amazongate, Sea levelgate, Hockey stickgate, and more than 120 additional scandals that have repeatedly exposed the discredited premises, fraudulent research, and faulty computer models on which the AGW fright pedaling empire has been built. 
The Next Big IPCC Propaganda Push
Now the United Nations’ IPCC is getting set to release the first of three installments of its latest Assessment Report. And the powers that be are obviously concerned that they do not have sufficient public support in the United States to get Congress to enact the type of trillion-dollar transfers and the “complete transformation of the world” envisioned. The IPCC is scheduled to release its Working Group I (WGI) report on the physical science basis of its latest Assessment in September, and they are desperate to gain support for it. In addition to the main stumbling block of American public resistance, they are also running into problems with European countries that once appeared to be locked in as supporters, but which are now revolting due to the crushing costs of alternative “green energy” and their own mounting debt and fiscal problems. Many of these countries are jumping ship and now want to switch to the more affordable natural gas that is flooding the global market, thanks to new “fracking” technology. This has the UN and the globalists in a dither. Last September, Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the UN’s International Energy Agency, warned that “governments are feeling more and more uncomfortable to put money in renewables especially in the days of austerity, and some governments are cutting their support."
"The availability of cheap or lower gas prices are putting additional pressure on renewable energies," Birol said. This is a bad thing, said the UN economist. Reuters gave this report on Birol’s apocalyptic warning regarding these developments: 
Birol said that any reduction in investment in renewable energy would increase the risk of an increase in global temperatures by 6 degree Celsius this century, describing the current trend as "catastrophic."
"If there are no urgent and bold policies put in place the door to a 2 degrees trajectory, the door to a normal life for us and for our children, will be closed and will be closed forever," he said. 
The “increase in global temperatures by 6 degree Celsius this century” is one of the many absurd — and persistent — claims made by AGW fanatics. Dr. William Happer, one of America’s preeminent physicists and a professor of physics at Princeton University, explains here why the six-degree increase bogeyman is ridiculous and completely without foundation in science. (A less technical layman’s version of the Happer article is available here.)
Many of the world’s leading authorities in climatology, meteorology, atmospheric physics, paleo-geology, and many other disciplines (see below) have been weighing in on the skeptical/realist side over the past few years and taking the position that it is beyond irresponsible for scientists and politicians to burden humanity with enormous and unprecedented tax and regulatory burdens based merely on frightening computer model scenarios that cannot sustain critical scientific examination.
In science, facts and truth are discovered by measurement and experiment, independent of surveys, opinion, popularity contests, and “consensus.” A fact remains a fact whether or not one percent, 97 percent, or 100 percent of scientists believe it to be a fact. And, conversely, a falsehood remains false even if 97 percent or even 100 percent of scientists believe it to be true. The history of science is littered with many discarded falsehoods that were once universally embraced by the scientific consensus of the day. Nevertheless, a credible claim of a consensus of  97 percent  — near unanimity — of scientists specializing in climate research (or any area of science) is not one that the common layman can, or should, lightly dismiss. After all, we laymen must rely on expert scientific opinion, on specialists, for many important issues involving health, medicine, energy, national defense, etc. And if virtually all scientists say something is true, we would be foolish to challenge their claims — unless we have extraordinary evidence to the contrary. 
There are key words and questions involved here: Do we have a “credible claim of consensus of 97%,” or is there “extraordinary evidence to the contrary”? The answer to the former is a resounding “No,” and to the latter an equally resounding “Yes.”
Crash Goes the Phony Consensus
One of the biggest lies of the AGW alarmist camp has been that virtually all scientists of any stature and expertise support the claims of AGW activists. Only old dinosaurs unfamiliar with modern climate research or corrupt scientists bought off by the fossil fuel industry disagree, goes their argument. The truth is strikingly at odds with this claim. As we noted last year (“'Climate Science' in Shambles: Real Scientists Battle UN Agenda") two of the most important AGW scientist activists have jumped ship and now battle against the cause they once supported: James Lovelock (photo above), the British inventor, NASA scientist, author, and originator of the Gaia Hypothesis; and Professor Fritz Vahrenholt, a founding father of Germany’s environmental movement and a director of one of Europe’s largest alternative energy companies. But that dynamic duo comprises only a minute fraction of the thousands of distinguished scientists who take issue with the AGW activists. In the same article last year, we noted that some of the IPCC’s severest critics are scientists who have served as lead authors and expert reviewers of IPCC reports and have witnessed from the inside the blatant bias and politics masquerading as science. Former and current IPCC experts who have spoken out against the IPCC’s abuse of science include such prominent scientists as:
• Dr. Judith Curry, chair of the Georgia Institute of Technology's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences; 
• Mike Hulme, professor of climate science at East Anglia University where the Climategate e-mails were hacked;
• Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT climate physicist and Alfred P. Sloan professor of meteorology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences;
• Dr. John Christy, climatologist of the University of Alabama in Huntsville and NASA;
• Dr. Lee C. Gerhard, past director and state geologist with the Kansas Geological Society and senior scientist emeritus of the University of Kansas;
• Dr. Patrick J. Michaels, former Virginia State climatologist, a UN IPCC reviewer, and University of Virginia professor of environmental sciences;
• Dr. Vincent Gray, New Zealand chemist and climate researcher;
• Dr. Tom V. Segalstad, geologist/geochemist, head of the Geological Museum in Norway; and
• Dr. John T. Everett, a former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) senior manager and project manager for the UN Atlas of the Oceans.
In 2010, Marc Morano of ClimateDepot.com published an important 321-page report featuring the statements of more than 1,000 renowned scientists worldwide who have challenged the IPCC’s manmade global-warming claims. (The full report may be downloaded for free, as a PDF, here.) The 1,000+ lineup of scientists reads like a Who’s Who of the global scientific community. It includes:
• Dr. Willie Soon, Harvard-Smithsonian Center astrophysicist;
• Dr. William Happer, Cyrus Fogg Bracket professor of physics, Princeton University;
• Dr. Leonard Weinstein, 35 years at the NASA Langley Research Center and presently a senior research fellow at the National Institute of Aerospace;
• Dr. Robert B. Laughlin, Nobel Prize-winning Stanford University physicist, formerly a research scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory;
• Dr. Anatoly Levitin, the head of the geomagnetic variations laboratory at the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radiowave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences;
• Dr. Hans Jelbring, Swedish climatologist of the Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics Unit at Stockholm University;
• Burt Rutan, renowned engineer, inventor, and aviation/space pioneer;
• Dr. Syun-Ichi Akasofu, emeritus professor of physics, and founding director, International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks;
• Dr. Bjarne Andresen, physicist, and professor, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark; and
• Dr. Ian D. Clark, professor, isotope hydrogeology and paleoclimatology, University of Ottawa, Canada. 
And if still more proof is needed that the science is not “settled” — as Al Gore, the IPCC, the UN, and other members of the alarmist choir claim — more than 31,000 scientists in the United States have signed a petition urging the U.S. government to reject the types of actions that have been proposed at UN forums in Kyoto, Copenhagen, Cancun, and Rio. The Petition Project, organized by Dr. Arthur Robinson of the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine and Dr. Frederick Seitz, past president of the National Academy of Sciences, demonstrates a resounding rejection of claims that there is any kind of "overwhelming consensus" that anthropogenic global warming is a crisis or serious threat.The petition reads, in part: 
The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind.
There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. 
Many of the scientists cited above, as well as hundreds more among those featured in the ClimateDepot study cited, have published peer-reviewed articles in scientific journals, but as our report on the Cook study noted, these articles by skeptic/realist authors have been systematically filtered out of the lists of accepted studies, with the obvious intent of supporting the thesis that published scientists overwhelmingly subscribe to the manmade global warming thesis. The Cook study claimed to be able to find only 78 published studies that supported the skeptical viewpoint. However, PopularTechnology.net published a list of “1100+ Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skeptic Arguments Against ACC/AGW Alarm,” which, again, underscores the shoddy (or intentionally censorious and dishonest) research involved in the celebrated Cook study. 
Censorship Exposed
Since we've mentioned censorship, it is worthy of note that the 2009 Climategate e-mail scandal at East Anglia University exposed a vicious and seamy side of the climate-change fraternity that outraged even many of the alarmists’ supporters. As shown herehere, and here, some of the most famous scientists, journals, and institutions promoting AGW alarmism have unethically and maliciously blocked (and/or attempted to block) the publication of papers by fellow scientists who were considered to be opponents of AGW, or who were considered to be simply insufficiently alarmist. Some of the alarmists went even further, attempting to destroy the reputations of skeptics and/or get them fired. If they can’t achieve their “consensus” one way, they’ll get it another.
As we draw closer to the release of the IPCC’s WGI report in September, we can expect that the campaign of climate-alarmist misinformation and disinformation will intensify.
Related articles:

Paper finds a long-term cooling trend in the N. Atlantic and Mediterranean

A paper published in Quaternary Science Reviews finds a long-term cooling trend of the sea surface in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean during the Holocene [past 10,000 years]. According to the authors, "All [7 of these] these paleo-temperature records document an apparent long-term cooling during the last 10,000 years." The paper confirms other research finding a cooling of the Sargasso Sea in the N. Atlantic over the past 3,000 years.
All seven temperature proxies from sediments show cooling in the N. Atlantic and Mediterranean over the Holocene. Horizontal axis is years before the present.

Another proxy from the Sargasso Sea, N. Atlantic also shows cooling over the past 3,000 years.



Reconstructions of upper ocean temperature (T) during the Holocene (10–0 ka B.P.) were established using the alkenone method from seven, high accumulation sediment cores raised from the northeast Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea (36°N–75°N). All these paleo-T records document an apparent long-term cooling during the last 10,000 yrs. In records with indication of a constant trend, the apparent cooling ranges from −0.27 to −0.15°Ckyr−1. Records with indication of time-variable trend show peak-to-peak amplitudes in apparent temperatures of 1.2–2.9°C. A principal component analysis shows that there is one factor which accounts for a very large fraction (67%) of the total variance in the biomarker paleo-T records and which dominates these records over other potential secondary influences. Two possible contributions are (1) a widespread surface cooling, which may be associated with the transition from the Hypsithermal interval (∼9–5.7kaB.P.) to the Neoglaciation (∼5.7–0kaB.P.); and (2) a change in the seasonal timing and/or duration of the growth period of alkenone producers (prymnesiophyte algae). The first contribution is consistent with many climate proxy records from the northeast Atlantic area and with climate model simulations including Milankovitch forcing. The second contribution is consistent with the divergence between biomarker and summer faunal paleo-T from early to late Holocene observed in two cores. Further work is necessary, and in particular the apparent discordance between biomarker and faunal T records for the relative stable Holocene period must be understood, to better constrain the climatic and ecological contributions to the apparent cooling observed in the former records.

Journal: Quaternary Science Reviews - QUATERNARY SCI REV , vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 455-483, 2002

New paper finds another non-hockey-stick in the Russian Subarctic

A new paper published in Quaternary Research reconstructs temperatures over the past 10,000 years in the Russian Subarctic, and finds temperatures were about 1C higher than the present during the Holocene Climate Optimum ~8,000 years ago. The authors also find a linear non-hockey-stick increase in temperature over the past 3,000 years to the present-day. 


Figure 6. Chironomid-inferred changes in mean July air temperature at Lake Kupal'noe (K-TJuly), plotted together with the corresponding record from Lake Berkut (B-TJulyIlyashuk et al., 2005) near the Kola White Sea coast (Fig. 1). Open circles and dotted line represent unsmoothed data from Lake Kupal'noe. Samples that had poor fits to TJuly are marked as white stars. Thick solid and dashed lines represent LOESS–smoothed records (span = 0.20, order = 1). The horizontal thin dashed line indicates the assumed present-day TJuly [July temperature] value at Lake Kupal'noe. Aquatic invertebrate zones (Ai-1 to Ai-6) follow Fig. 5.
Holocene climate variability on the Kola Peninsula, Russian Subarctic, based on aquatic invertebrate records from lake sediments

  • a Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Technikerstraße 25, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria
  • b Institute of North Industrial Ecology Problems, Kola Science Centre, Russian Academy of Sciences, 14 Fersman St., Apatity, Murmansk reg., 184209 Russia
  • c Geological Institute, Kola Science Centre, Russian Academy of Sciences, 14 Fersman St., Apatity, Murmansk reg., 184209 Russia
  • d Department of Geology, Quaternary Sciences, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, SE-223 62 Lund, Sweden

Abstract

Sedimentary records of invertebrate assemblages were obtained from a small lake in the Khibiny Mountains, Kola Peninsula. Together with a quantitative chironomid-based reconstruction of mean July air temperature, these data provide evidence of Holocene climate variability in the western sector of the Russian Subarctic. The results suggest that the amplitude of climate change was more pronounced in the interior mountain area than near the White Sea coast. A chironomid-based temperature reconstruction reflects a warming trend in the early Holocene, interrupted by a transient cooling at ca. 8500–8000 cal yr BP with a maximum drop in temperature (ca. 1°C) around 8200 cal yr BP. The regional Holocene Thermal Maximum, characterized by maximum warmth and dryness occurred at ca. 7900–5400 cal yr BP. During this period, July temperatures were at least 1°C higher than at present. The relatively warm and dry climate persisted until ca. 4000 cal yr BP, when a pronounced neoglacial cooling was initiated. Minimum temperatures, ca. 1–2°C lower than at present, were inferred at ca. 3200–3000 cal yr BP. Faunal shifts in the stratigraphic profile imply also that the late-Holocene cooling was followed by a general increase in effective moisture.

Farewell: Climate catastrophe and CO2 delusion in free fall - worldwide!

Google translation of post today on the German EIKE site:

Farewell: Climate catastrophe and CO2 delusion in free fall - worldwide!

Therefore - it's time for a fact check:

(1)

Temperature: For 15 years, the end of global warming

In the English-speaking media, the openly for several years, such as: "Global warming nonsense gets a true cold shoulder" writes The Daily Telegraph [2] Or, "Forget global warming" subtitled Daily Mail [3].

Now the skeptical debate has also reached the media in Germany [4], for example, writes Der Spiegel [5] :

".... But already got around that the climate has recently developed differently than predicted: For 15 years, increased warming ., the upward trend in the average global temperature has not continued since 1998, 'The stoppage has led to the assumption global warming has ceased ', admits NASA. "

Or elsewhere [6]: "It's Official: There is no global warming."

All these statements are based on the temperature-evaluations of IPCC-related institutions, such as in Figure 1


Figure 1
Global temperature analyzes of the British Met Office [7] The blue curve shows the average trend across the temperature curve to cooler values, the inserted brown trend line over the last 15 years;

This is also to be noted: The meteorological and climatological elements show strong fluctuations of nature, a so-called "noise". Therefore, conclusions about trends or trend reversal is statistically with a "significance test" to check. This is said in the cited paper where:

"Until thought scientists fourteen years without further warming were to bring their forecasts in line - but not" "15 years or more," as NASA researchers in the journal four years ago, "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society konstatierten . "Transferring this NASA statement on the current situation, the continuous phase is now 15 years since the heating stops outside the "noise" of climate and climate models. This will also repeatedly advocated the correlation with the continuing increase in CO2 emissions and ultimately a major anthropogenic cause of the secular warming of the 20th Century called into question.

F o sum

The geophysicist Professor Larry Bell [8] it brings in an overview article on the point [9] :

"The climate stubbornly refuses to work with the warming alarmists together." (2)

Sea levels: Continuous slowing the rise

Figure 2
Sea level trend globally; satellite measurements [10] 1993-2012

The increase is slowing down (red arrow);

The result shown in Figure 2 is clear: since the last ice age already millennia sea level rise slowed globally.

Show the same result for the German North Sea coast of the data REKLIM study [11] North German Research Institute: "The evaluation[12] shows that even when the levels are comparable to the satellite data trend towards weakening of the sea-level rise, with a statistically quite "robust" data set of about 160 years .... ".

As well as the state government of Lower Saxony [13] says:

"Climate change is not noticeable for a rising sea level on the North Sea coast of Lower Saxony as a result of climate change, the state government sees no signs ..... trend of the increase in unchanged 25 cm per century A faster increase was not observed.."

And the National Association NLWKN ... [14]

"All the discussions and nightmare scenarios for defiance: a scientific evidence for a massive increase in sea level for the period up to 2100 there is not."

Writes the lyrics to all these facts, the regional press [15] repeatedly headlines this kind: "Bremerhaven is sinking in the sea?" ... accompanied with a picture, just see the port from the hotel in Bremerhaven on the North Sea looks up and out. Where are the voices of established scientists who are opposed to such a hysteria-shaping of citizens, so make some mischief in the newspaper right?
(3)

Extreme Weather: IPCC [16] found no trends

A "believing" the public by some climate researchers, but especially in the media suggested [17]: "The number of devastating storms, rainfall and other weather-related natural disasters has been in Germany since the 1970s, more than tripled - and will continue to increase ... "

Quite the opposite show the measurements and statistics of weather services in Germany and around the world! Even the IPCC's 2001 report, found no trend toward more extreme weather [18]:

"New analyzes of changes in local severe weather (tornadoes, thunder days, lightning and hail) in some selected regions provide no compelling evidence of widespread systematic long-term changes."

Ten years later, before the climate conference in Durban in 2011, the IPCC even created a special report (SREX) on extreme weather, with the same result [19]:

"... Still some extreme events, the researchers can not really be attributed to human influence ..."
And ibid there is a wealth of other statements that are helping to making the public completely covered disaster debate:
"The special report of the IPCC says the uncertainty is quite clear from this and from some climate activists already sharply attacked" ... "We forget all over the greenhouse gas debate that floods, storms and heat waves occur even without climate change."

In another survey [20] to this passage:
"On the development of most other weather extremes (Note: except heat and drought) but science can not make any statements satisfying .... The estimates are based on surveys among experts, so they have no hard scientific basis." ... and finally ibid:

"The real message is that we know about most of weather disasters too little to predict the development."
There are numerous other compilations and summaries to extreme weather statistics, the result is almost always the case from [21]:

"After 100 years of global warming (until 1998) find the weather service this earth no trends toward more extreme weather. Why should this change in the coming decades, even to where it is no longer warmer in 14 years? About the climate of the next 100 years may only be speculated and fantasized nature does already something other than the models ".

F t azi:

It does not even require the analysis of a "skeptic" scientists ostracized critical to realize: there is no trend toward more extreme weather. The IPCC reports themselves prove that!
(4)

Storms: Decreasing trend in hurricanes and storm surges

Not all tropical storms develop into hurricanes, however: Both a decreasing trend for almost half a century is documented as the picture shows 3.
Figure 3
Trend in hurricanes and tropical storms [22]; Inserted arrows and text boxes

For this, the researcher Ryan Maue of Florida State University [23] says: "Global Tropical Cyclone ACE does not show in communion with upward trend in global temperatures."

Hurricane SANDY was declared in the media to air signal. What was not mentioned [24]: "... reached 'Sandy' Category 2 hurricane on the five-point scale ...", hence SANDY was a whirlwind of second lowest class. A high destructive effect had SANDY only in that he reached the cities of the U.S. east coast, and about one in ten hurricanes takes this path.

The storm frequency over the North Atlantic and the North Sea is associated with the oscillations of the North Atlantic Oscillation NAO Barometer been known for more than 100 years and still unpredictable irregular oscillation. For about 20 years there is a decreasing trend in storms and storm surges:
Figure 4
Statistics of storm surges in Cuxhaven [25]
(Trend Arrow included)

This writes the BSH Hamburg [26]: "A generally increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of storm surges as a harbinger of global climate change is not currently visible" ... "Already, coastal protection and levees are designed to keep storm surges higher than the level previously occurred."

... and the German Weather Service says [27]: "It can be for Central and Western Europe have demonstrated no long temporal increase in storms in strength and / or frequency"
(5)

More droughts? No - The deserts shrink!

Was written by the National Geographic Magazine [28] in a report: "desertification, drought and despair - that's what global warming has in store for most parts of Africa - at least that's what we hear, the becoming visible facts draw a lot. much different picture - one in which rising temperatures can be a boon for millions of Africans in the driest areas of the continent. "

And ... waaO: "Scientists now see signals that the Sahara and surrounding regions become green due to increasing rainfall."

The same is reported in ZDF 'adventure' knowledge '[29]: "... common notion": "... grow to be the deserts ... and the people flee from this hostile environment ..." ... "But this scenario does not ... namely the Sahara will be wet and therefore greener than it is today. Evidence provides the desert itself - in the middle of Libya. "

Insofar as the findings in the North Sahara. The same positive picture emerges very recently in the Südsahara in the Sahel zone [30]:

"Change of power in the savannah - trees gain the upper hand over Grass ... Large parts of the African savanna could be to forests by 2100 This emerges from a study of the Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre and the Goethe University in Frankfurt, held today in 'Nature'. was published., the results suggest that fertilization results in a denser forest cover due to rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere in all of Africa, when a certain CO2 level is exceeded ... this way the risk of falls by vibrations of the Earth system an abrupt change in vegetation. "

And not only increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration on photosynthesis affects positively for plant growth, but also the precipitation increases in the drylands to [31]:

"The desert lives: In the 1980s, this area of the Sahara in northwest Sudan was still a dry hostile desert ... The greening of land in this decade because it was raining much more - most likely due to climate warming."
Also in Germany there is a secular trend with +10% more precipitation [32]. Therefore, it is irresponsible, even if in the regional press of such headlines are reprinted
 [33] : "Central Europe is a desert, Africa dries out completely," and elsewhere [34] : "Because of water scarcity and drought can cause significant crop losses." ... so they peddled by the press repeatedly without verification against the facts, here is the German Farmers' Association. (6)

The Arctic is melting to the Antarctic sets

Exactly what was recently stated by the AWI researcher Professor Peter Lemke short and clear [35]: "It has been measured that the ice has declined rapidly in the Arctic the same time the ice has increased in the Antarctic and the largest expansion since at least 40th reached years. "

While one can determine the surface at the poles of icing with satellite fairly accurate measurement of the ice volume is much more difficult. This is particularly due to the fact that the ice sheets on Greenland have a thickness of 3 km and on the Antarctic continent of 4 km. Estimates with different scientific methods come to this conclusion: The Greenland ice losing mass, the ice on the Antarctic continent sets to [36]:

"From 2003 to 2008, the mass gain of the Antarctic ice sheet has increased by snow in the mass loss due to ice flow by 49 gigatons per year (2.5% of the input), as demonstrated ICESat laser measurements of the height of the ice sheet."
The global ice overall balance is more positive because otherwise the already-millennium sea-level rise would accelerate this for decades, but slowed down (see above under "sea level").
Figure 5 / ICESat [37]
Antarctica: a huge block of ice, saves 95% of the world's fresh water -
Trend: increasingly, the green lines connect points of measurement of the satellite

Recent studies show that all of these processes run very slowly [38]:


"Our data show that during the Eemian (Note: 125.000 years ago) up to eight degrees Celsius warmer was in Northern Greenland than today," says project leader Professor Dorthe Dahl-Jensen of the University of Copenhagen that the Greenland ice sheet. have not so sensitive to this temperature increase, as previously thought, is the good news of the study "... and waaO:".. these new findings are really exciting to refute not only all horror scenarios where the Greenland ice sheet as part of a Warm Period disappears in a flash. Moreover, you confirm model calculations that have been made ​​already about a decade ago at the Alfred Wegener Institute, "says Prof. Heinrich Miller, co-author of the study and Helmholtz Professor of Glaciology at the Alfred Wegener Institute."

F o sum


The Arctic is melting, Antarctica shall be: A disaster is neither the one nor the other!
(7)

Models: Not CO2 "is to blame", but water vapor!

Some climate institutions and promote an IPCC global warming of 2 .. 5 .. 8 degrees for a doubling of CO2. However, what the public is virtually unknown: The CO2 can not afford physical reasons, what exactly is to be read also in the world of Air Council reports [39] :

"When considering only measured under laboratory radiation effect of CO2 results in a climate sensitivity of 1.2 ° C. However, there are feedback effects, including mainly the water vapor feedback, the ice-albedo feedback and cloud. Consequently, the possible and probably higher than assumed values, a value of 3 ° is now accepted as the most likely. "
The choice of words used by the IPCC "... the possible and probably assumed values ​​..." says it clearly: There are large uncertainties in this kind of temperature forecasts "adopted" reinforcing processes - are hypotheses!

This is confirmed as the director of the Coastal Research Institute, Hamburg, Hans von Storch [40]: "We climate researchers can only offer possible scenarios, so it can also get quite different" ... and von Storch elsewhere [41] "Climate research is currently in a post-normal situation. The inherent uncertainties are enormous. "

Just now the show has become well known in advance texts and illustrations from the new IPCC report 2013/14, which already provides for the climate alarmists for some excitement [42]: "The leaked draft of parts of the report of the IPCC 5th state startled and awakened the professional world as well as dedicated observers. was even talk of a 'bomb'. "
Specifically identified [43] there is the temperature forecasts:

"Temperature development Depicted in the draft of the IPCC AR5 coming ..... It is clear to see the current temperature did development lies in the lower range of the IPCC scenarios and did the temperature increase enlarge load has not accelerated over the years."
Figure 6
IPCC temperature forecasts compared to reality [44]

And loc ... for sea-level Development:

"Sea level development Depicted in the draft of the upcoming IPCC AR 5: The overall range of the four previous IPCC reports is shown alongwith the actual plot-observed sea level (...) Clearly the current sea level rise has not accelerated and. is in the lower range of the IPCC scenarios. "
(8)

Disillusionment with the climate alarmists

There will be no international climate agreement. It is always assumed that the do not with non-European industrialized countries, because they do not want to weaken their economy. That plays a role. Any further aspect, however, is that in the major science nations such as USA, China, Japan, India, Russia, Canada scientists also have a realistic climate-skeptic think access as a government agent:

China [45] "... chief negotiator Xie Zhenhua said even at conferences:" There are alternative positions that lead back climate change on natural processes, we must remain open.. "..."

Elsewhere ... and the Zurich WELTWOCHE [46]:

"It is time to abandon such useless conferences .... It is the last convulsions of a political approach ..... Summon many states nonetheless the international climate, it is only because they hope, in view of the abzubekommen identified billion payments a bit. "

Realism and disillusionment are spreading. The shows also just started a movie in theaters Climate Crime, what it says in a press release [47]:

"Actually, the climate is supposed to save our earth, but now he instead accelerated the destruction of the last natural areas." UwaaO. "Away from large conferences and beautiful words dominate the climate destructive large-scale projects." ... And waaO:"What is currently in the name not only the climate, but also of green growth proceeds, I would describe as a kind of rampage against nature and thus to the last bit of ecological rationality. (Niko Paech, economists). "
(9)

Climate protection = environmental protection?

NO! This example of the former director of the Meteorological Institute in Berlin, Prof. Horst Malberg [48] says, "to breathe clean air, drink clean water, unpolluted lakes, rivers, oceans, and soils, as well as an intact ecosystem are among the fundamental rights of man a. stable climate heard how the climate history teaches us not to. "
Even more clearly, the AWI Assistant Director Prof. Heinrich Miller [49]:

"Who talks of climate change, awakens illusions ', Miller warns about modesty,' climate can not protect and stabilize at a desired temperature. It has also often drastically altered without human impacts. ' Keywords such as climate collapse or catastrophe he considers misleading. 'Climate can not collapse, natural disasters knows no'. "

In contrast, green ideologues and profiteers of climate protection projects and energy-turn suggest something quite different [50]: "The obvious particularly pronounced in Germany CO2 climate hysteria is ... linked ideologically and materially by a community of interests of profiteers and enforced. "

For this reason, you almost never hear that the IPCC-affiliated institutions to correct excessive disaster scenarios of the media in Germany and more objective, which you can run, it serves the business.

Scientifically, it is almost absurd to some by a few turns of CO2 screws would retain 'a nice comfortable stable climate'. So is the "2-degree target" is a goal [51]: "Summit in L'Aquila (2009): ... The leaders of the eight largest economies have agreed that global warming on two degrees Celsius is to be limited. "it actually falls on anyone? Politicians decide what to do the air! To the mathematician and climatologist Professor Hans von Storch says in THE TIME [52]: "Two degrees is a political, a meaningless number I think this is bullshit."

In addition:

In an irrational climate debate is saddled it for political and ideological reasons, an adventurous and for the citizens extremely price-driven energy policy.

The current prices "explode", as a result, other costs and prices.

The policy has a pseudo-science called "climate protection" possession. Not to be confused with it: climate research is important. But this should not be abused with unsecured findings as politically motivated basis for the conversion of entire societies.
(10)

Summary:

Here it is sufficient to the summary of an extensive overview article [53] to the climate issue of the professor of physics and energy research, Philip Lloyd [54] To quote from the University of Cape Town:

"The world is a little warmer., The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases. Plants grow better than before because of this increased content of CO2., The sea level is rising at a barely measurable rate. Climatic disasters are not worse than before. The animal kingdom is the growth of a single species harassed, namely us, but this has nothing to do with global warming. And these are the reasons that there is a climate of skepticism. "

Note:

An abridged version of this essay appeared in the northern German culture magazine RUN PASS:http://laufpass.com/ausgaben/eBook/eBook_0213/flash.html ;
This version is attached here as a PDF file, courtesy of RUN PASS publisher Bremerhaven.
[1] SPON, report to the extreme weather; 18.11.2011 www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/0, 1518,798406,00 html.
February 01, 2012
16 October 2012
[5] Spiegel Online
18/01/2013
[6] German Economic News, Environment, 08.01.2013
[8] http://blogs.forbes.com/people/larrybell/
[11] REKLIM, Our Climate (Hamburg, 2011), p.9, Figure 2.4
05.12.2012
[13] NZ, 04.02.2010, p.4
[14] NLWKN, Annual Report 2005
[15] North-Z., 19.05.2012, p.17
[16] Intergovernmental Panel on Climat Change
[18] IPCC, 2001, TAR-02-2, Chapt. 2.7.4., Summary, p.163-164
[19] Der Spiegel, 21.11.2011, The crux of the disaster, pp. 156-158
[20] SPON, 18/11/2011, report on extreme weather: UN fails in education on climate change;
07.11.2012
[23] http://policlimate.com/tropical/index.html
[24] http://www.naturgewalten.de/sandy.htm
[25] HH BSH, S. Müller-Navarra (2012)
[26] Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency, Press Wed. 26.09.2007
[27] G. Rose Hagen: For the development of storm activity in Central and Western Europe, Promet, No.1 / 2 (2008) p.60
[28] Sahara Desert Greening Due to Climate Change? National Geographic News, July 31, 2009
[31] FOCUS 48/2010
[32] www.dwd.de , climate monitoring, long rows
[33] North-Z., 03.04.2007, p.4
[34] North-Z., 21.11.2007
[35] NZ, 27.10.2012, p 20: Since 1992, we were not there
[36] http://www.kaltesonne.de/?p=6020, 12.10.2012
[38] Alfred Wegener Institute, Press Release, 24/01/2013
[39] WIKIPEDIA to gain steam
[40] Der Spiegel, 11/2007, p.56
[41] of STORK, H.; STEHR, N.: climate research and climate policy, Nat.Rdsch. H.6 (2010), pp. 301-307.
24.12.2012
, 22.12.2012
[45] WELTWOCHE Zurich, 04.10.2012, p 41;
[46] WORLD WEEK, 01.12.2011, p.12
[48] ​​H. MALBERG, contributions to the Berlin weather map, 03/11, SO 01/11, 5.1.2011
[49] bit in the ice, DIE ZEIT, 06.06.2007, p.40
[50] factum 3/2012, p.34, Schwengeler Verlag AG, CH-9442 Berneck
[52] In: DIE ZEIT, 20.08.2009, p.29